Photovoltaic Materials: Current Status and Prospects Of Domestic Carbon-Carbon Composite Thermal Field Market

 

Abstract

There are bottlenecks in the domestic carbon fiber, insulation felt and carbon-carbon hot field markets, and the price trend may continue to decline. Although the production processes and raw material selections of insulation felt and carbon-carbon products are different, some companies use similar processes. Carbon fiber is the main raw material for making carbon-carbon products, while insulation felt can be made of low-quality fibers such as waste fiber or directly made of carbon fiber. Longi’s future carbon-carbon parts procurement volume will definitely increase, but the specific additional procurement volume is still uncertain. Large furnaces can reduce costs, but they need to match processes and equipment. After the price war in the carbon-carbon hot field market, some small factories are difficult to survive, but some small factories producing prefabricated bodies are still strong in the market.

 

Details

There are bottlenecks in the domestic carbon fiber supply chain, and the market trend may continue to decline. The production processes of insulation felt and carbon fiber are similar, but the raw materials and processes are different. Carbon-carbon hot field and insulation felt are two independent markets, and the technical levels cannot be compared. Domestic carbon-carbon crucible, diversion barrel and insulation barrel production enterprises are specialized in division of labor, and mutual penetration and division of labor between carbon-carbon hot field enterprises are unlikely to exist. Insulation felt uses acrylic fiber, which is obtained by pre-oxidation and graphitization. The technology of large-scale continuous furnaces is not very stable, and the price tends to be stable, and may continue to fall in the future. Enterprise expansion is conducive to cost reduction, but for enterprises that have reached a high level of production capacity, there is little room for cost reduction.

 

 

1. There are bottlenecks and market trends in the domestic carbon fiber supply chain. The division of labor is specialized because the process and technical requirements between different materials and products vary greatly. Although the production process of thermal insulation felt and carbon fiber is similar, the raw materials and processes are different.

 

2. The production process of thermal insulation felt and carbon fiber is similar, but the raw materials and processes are different. Thermal insulation felt is mainly made of materials such as oxidation and graphite, while carbon fiber uses polypropylene as the starting material. Although the materials and steps of the two are similar, the subsequent processes are completely different. Carbon-carbon is produced from carbon fiber as the starting point, which is different from thermal insulation felt. The production of thermal insulation felt is relatively small and the competition is not fierce, while carbon-carbon is fiercely competitive and the price drop is large.

 

3. Carbon-carbon thermal field and thermal insulation felt are two independent markets, and the technical levels cannot be compared. Both markets have their own production processes and raw materials, and there is little intersection between different markets.

 

4. Based on factors such as life, size, appearance, ash content, etc., Jinbo, Chaoma and Meiland are better choices. However, the products of the three suppliers have not been able to meet the requirements of 6 months recently. It is predicted that they may continue to decline in the future.

 

5. Domestic carbon-carbon crucible, diversion barrel and insulation barrel production enterprises are specialized in division of labor. These enterprises are auxiliary material production enterprises of carbon-carbon hot field, focusing on the production and sales of carbon-carbon hot field. These enterprises compete with each other, but the market share is relatively stable, and enterprises rarely get involved in other markets, such as the insulation felt market. Therefore, among carbon-carbon hot field enterprises, the production and sales of insulation felt are rarely involved, and there is little intersection between the two markets.

 

6. The insulation felt uses acrylic fiber, which is combed and needled into white felt, and then pre-oxidized and graphitized to finally obtain the product. The production process of insulation felt is relatively simple, which is very different from the production process of carbon-carbon hot field. Insulation felt is relatively small, the competition is not fierce, but the market share is relatively stable.

 

7. The technology of large-size continuous furnaces is not very stable, and it is said that the use effect is not good. Large furnaces can reduce costs, but technology and equipment need to be matched. The current price is relatively stable and may continue to fall in the future. Breakthrough points for reducing costs include using low-grade carbon fiber and reducing the number of layers of preforms. Thinning preforms can save costs, but the shape needs to be stable. Three-dimensional weaving technology is not cost-effective in prefabricated products and will increase the use of carbon fiber.

 

8. Enterprise expansion is conducive to cost reduction, but for enterprises that have reached a high level of production capacity, there is little room for cost reduction. Longi has a plan to expand production, and the purchase volume will increase, but the specific value is still uncertain. There are many suppliers, and the selection of suppliers mainly considers factors such as historical cooperation, price and quality. Small suppliers can also meet the demand, not because of poor production capacity and product quality. About 60-70% of the products are qualified within a period of time, so Jinbo has a higher advantage. Jinbo’s price is lower, but the compensation is higher, so from a profit perspective, Jinbo will include the cost of scrapped or compensated pots in the R&D cost.

 

Carbon-carbon products and thermal insulation felts have different production processes and raw material selection, but some companies use similar processes. Carbon fiber is the main raw material for carbon-carbon products, while thermal insulation felt can be made from low-quality fibers such as waste fibers or directly from carbon fiber. The profit margins and market sizes of thermal insulation felt and carbon-carbon products are different. Product life, accuracy, quality inspection reports and application performance are important indicators for judging product quality. The production processes and equipment of thermal insulation felt and carbon-carbon products are not universal, so companies rarely produce both products at the same time.

 

1. The production process and raw material selection of insulation felt and carbon-carbon products are very different. The production process of insulation felt is relatively simple, and it can be made of low-quality fibers or directly made of carbon fibers. Carbon-carbon products require high-quality raw materials such as carbon fibers as the main raw materials, and the production process is more complicated.

 

2. Carbon fiber is the main raw material for making carbon-carbon products, while insulation felt can be made of low-quality fibers such as waste fibers or directly made of carbon fibers. Insulation felt has lower requirements for raw materials, mainly for thermal insulation performance. However, the cost of making insulation felt with carbon fibers is relatively high.

 

3. The market size and profit margin of insulation felt and carbon-carbon products are very different. Insulation felt has a low profit margin and a small market size. Carbon-carbon products have a high profit margin and fierce market competition.

 

4. The life, accuracy, quality inspection report and application performance of the product are important indicators for judging the quality of carbon-carbon products and insulation felt. The life of carbon-carbon products is one of the main factors, while the reusability of Guobang products is one of its advantages.

 

5. The accuracy of size and appearance is one of the important indicators for judging product quality. Unqualified products may be eliminated. For insulation felt, dimensional accuracy is particularly important. Since the sizes and shapes of insulation barrels vary, the dimensional accuracy requirements of insulation felt are relatively high.

 

6. Providing an authoritative quality inspection report is also one of the important factors in judging product quality. Such a report is relatively authoritative. The relatively authoritative report provided by the National Quality Inspection Bureau can be used to judge product quality.

 

7. The application performance of insulation felt and carbon-carbon products is also different. The density and thermal conductivity of carbon fiber are higher than those of insulation felt. Therefore, in some applications that require high density and high thermal conductivity, carbon-carbon products are more suitable.

 

8. The production process and equipment of insulation felt and carbon-carbon products are not universal, so companies rarely produce both products at the same time. Although the processes they use sometimes have some similarities, there is actually a big gap from the perspective of process segments and raw materials.

 

 

Jinbo has a low price and large production capacity, which can guarantee supply. Although the life span is low, the cost of compensation and scrapping the pot is high and can be included in the R&D cost. At present, the life span of products in the industry generally does not reach 6 months, and the change of raw materials is the main influencing factor. Customizing better carbon fiber may increase the life span, but there is no need to pursue too high a life span at present. Meilande has a higher price.

 

1. Jinbo has the lowest life span, and Chaoma and Meilande have similar processes, but their life span is higher than Jinbo. The life span of products in the industry generally does not reach 6 months, and the change of raw materials is the main influencing factor. At present, there is no need to pursue life span very much, because customers only require stable supply. Unless the life span can be greatly improved, the cost increase will be less attractive to customers.

 

2. Jinbo’s ash content basically meets the requirements, while Meilande and Chaoma’s ash content is relatively high. This may be related to the impregnation process they use, because the ash content of the impregnation itself will be higher. Tianyi Shangjia’s ash content is basically the same as Jinbo.

 

3. In terms of surface quality, Tianyi Shangjia does a good job, and Chaoma and Meilande are also okay. This may be related to the equipment and processes they use.

 

4. The purchase volume not only considers technical requirements, but also includes supply guarantee capabilities and prices. Jinbo has a large production capacity and low price, which can guarantee supply. The compensation attitude is good and can guarantee supply. Therefore, Jinbo may still account for a relatively high proportion at present.

 

5. At present, the product life in the industry generally does not reach 6 months, and changes in raw materials are the main influencing factors. Customized carbon fiber with better quality may increase life.

 

6. Jinbo’s advantage is that the cost of compensating and scrapping pots is high, so it will definitely be included in the R&D cost. The compensation attitude is good and supply can be guaranteed. Because Jinbo is on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, there are certain requirements for R&D expenses. From a profit perspective, Jinbo can include compensation or scrapped pots in the R&D cost.

 

7. At present, there is no need to pursue life very much, because customers only require stable supply. Unless the life can be greatly improved, the cost increase will be less attractive to customers.

 

8. Meilande’s price is relatively high, about 360-370. Jinbo’s price is relatively low, so the lower price in the supply chain is definitely the first choice.

 

Longi’s future purchases of carbon-carbon parts will certainly increase, but the specific amount of new purchases is still uncertain. Jinbo’s prices are lower, mainly because it strives for market share with a short lifespan, but there are also technological improvements. The suppliers that Longi chooses to cooperate with are not necessarily the largest companies, but companies that can guarantee the stability and timeliness of supply.

 

Tianyi Shangjia is considered to have a greater cost advantage, and its ability to make its own prefabricated bodies has not yet been fully utilized, and local advantages in water, electricity, labor, etc. also help to reduce costs. The product quality and price between different suppliers are not necessarily different, but the market share ratio is different. The suppliers purchased by Longi are not only concentrated in the thermal field, but there are multiple suppliers for various purchases. Longi’s operating rate will increase in the future, so the demand for carbon-carbon parts will also increase.

 

1. Longi’s future carbon-carbon parts procurement volume will definitely increase, because Longi itself is also expanding production, and the market share ratios between different suppliers are different. Small companies such as Chaoma and Meilande have small production capacity, but the suppliers that Longi chooses to cooperate with are not necessarily the largest companies, but companies that can guarantee the stability and timeliness of supply.

 

2. Jinbo’s low price is mainly because it strives for market share with a short life, but there are also technological improvements, which can ensure that the price war can continue. When Longi chooses suppliers, price is not the only consideration.

 

3. Longi’s suppliers are not necessarily the largest companies, but companies that can guarantee the stability and timeliness of supply. The product quality and price between different suppliers are not necessarily different, but the market share ratio is different. In Longi’s procurement strategy, there are multiple suppliers for various procurements, not just the thermal field, in order to ensure the stability and timeliness of supply.

 

4. Tianyi Shangjia is considered to have a greater cost advantage. Its ability to make prefabricated bodies has not yet been fully utilized, and the local advantages in water, electricity, labor, etc. also help to reduce costs. Therefore, Tianyi Shangjia’s cost will definitely be the lowest in the future.

 

5. The product quality and price of different suppliers are not necessarily different, but the market share ratio is different. Although the purchase volume of enterprises with smaller production capacity, such as Chaoma and Meiland, will definitely increase in the future, the specific additional purchase volume is still uncertain.

 

6. Longi’s operating rate will increase in the future, so the demand for carbon-carbon parts will also increase. Although the market share ratios of different suppliers are different, Longi will choose companies that can guarantee the stability and timeliness of supply.

 

7. The suppliers purchased by Longi are not only concentrated in the thermal field, but there are multiple suppliers for various purchases. Including small enterprises such as Kaibo, Carbon Valley, and Jinchuang, although they have small production capacity, they can guarantee the stability and timeliness of supply.

 

8. Jinbo’s low price is mainly because it strives for market share with a short life, but there are also technological improvements. Although the product quality and price of different suppliers are not necessarily different, Longi will choose companies that can guarantee the stability and timeliness of supply and are reasonably priced.

 

Large furnaces can reduce costs, but they need to match processes and equipment; reducing carbon fiber costs and three-dimensional thinning are two directions to reduce costs. Quartz crucibles are a factor that restricts the production capacity of 32 inches to 36 inches, and domestic sand needs to expand production. Longi’s own quality is good, but the difficulty lies in the weaving process and deposition process of the preform. The production capacity of self-construction needs to be designed and controlled, including pulling speed, hot addition distance of guide tube, thickness of insulation barrel, heater height and oxygen content.

 

1. Large furnaces can reduce costs, but they need to match processes and equipment. Using large furnaces can reduce costs, but they need to match processes and equipment. Large-size continuous furnace technology is not stable enough and is not used well.

 

2. Reducing carbon fiber costs and three-dimensional thinning are two directions to reduce costs. The deposition cost has been made very low, and the reduction of deposition time and the use of larger furnaces to increase the loading amount are ways to continue to reduce the deposition cost. Three-dimensional weaving technology will increase the use of carbon fiber, and it is not cost-effective to use it now.

 

3. Quartz crucibles are a factor that restricts the production capacity of 32 inches to 36 inches, and domestic sand needs to expand production. Pacific has been expanding production, but the effect of domestic sand for the inner layer is still much worse. The amount of middle layer sand is still a bit short. By 2024, this amount may be expanded. Indian quartz is not good now, and what we call Indian sand is domestic sand.

 

4. Longi’s own quality is okay, but the difficulty lies in the weaving process and deposition process of the preform. Jinao’s quality seems to be not very good now, but Zhongxing’s is okay. Zhonghuan is made by Zhongxing, and Jinao is made by Jinxu. They are not doing it completely by themselves, which is equivalent to their own holding company or a supporting company with which they have a strategic partnership.

 

5. The production capacity of self-construction needs to be designed and controlled, including pulling speed, hot addition distance of guide tube, thickness of insulation barrel, heater height and oxygen content. Everyone’s production capacity has come up, so there is no need to do it by themselves. Anyway, the supply and demand are so sufficient now, and the price is so cheap, why do it yourself? This puts the risk on yourself.

 

 

After the price war in the carbon-carbon thermal field market, some small factories are difficult to survive, but some small factories producing prefabricated bodies are still strong in the market. Chaoma does not make prefabricated bodies because Toray does not sell to the military industry. The gross profit margin of thermal field materials is about 30%, which may be reduced to 20%-25% in the future. The unit cost will decrease after the expansion of large factories, but the space is limited. Carbon-carbon thermal field products have other application scenarios, such as industrial furniture, sleeves, carriers and bolts on graphite heaters. Perovskite may be stacked with silicon in the future, but the thinning of silicon wafers will not have a significant impact on the demand for daily production.

 

1. The shortage of production capacity has caused the price of carbon-carbon thermal fields to rise continuously, and the profit margin is very high, but with the increase of market players, the price war broke out, making it difficult for some small factories to survive. The technical content of prefabricated bodies is relatively low, and the production capacity is not in short supply, but some small factories can still survive in the market.

 

2. Chaoma does not make prefabricated bodies because Toray does not sell to the military industry. Although the preform itself has a certain technical content, it is relatively low compared to subsequent processes such as deposition and impregnation.

 

3. The gross profit margin of thermal field materials is about 30%, which may be reduced to 20%-25% in the future. The unit cost of large factories will decrease after expansion, but the space is limited. This may reduce the price of suppliers through a set of bidding methods.

 

4. In addition to the current use of crystal pulling in Longi, carbon-carbon thermal field products have other application scenarios, such as industrial furniture, sleeves, carriers and bolts on graphite heaters. Among them, carriers may be used more in the future.

 

5. Perovskite may be stacked with silicon in the future, but the thinning of silicon wafers will not have a significant impact on Nissan’s demand. If perovskite completely replaces crystal pulling, the carbon-silicon thermal field market will be greatly affected.

 

6. The price war has caused the price of carbon-carbon thermal field to fall, and the price may continue to fall in the future. Everyone hopes to squeeze small factories by expanding production, but as the number of market players increases, price wars break out, making it difficult for some small factories to survive.

 

7. The technical content of prefabricated products is relatively low, and production capacity is not in short supply, but some small factories can still survive in the market. Most small factories producing prefabricated products can be strong in the market, but some small factories cannot withstand the market pressure and exit the market.

 

8. The unit cost of large factories will decrease after expansion, but the space is limited. Increased production capacity may lead to further price declines.